Hans Joachim Schnellnhuber is among the world's half-dozen most eminent climate scientists according to The Nation (editorial Oct 26,09). His study indicates that we have a two out of three chance of limiting temperature increase to 2 degrees C if the US cuts carbon emissions by 100 percent by 2020, and the whole world is carbon-free by 2050. To have a 75% chance of only a 2 degree rise we'd have to quit carbon even sooner. If we wait another decade or so, the odds of only 2 degree rise become 50-50. The study applies the per capita principle to the world population of 7 billion, and arrives at an annual emissions quota of 2.7 tons of carbon dioxide per person annually. Americans currently emit an average of 20 tons annually, that's why we have to reduce our consumption faster than other countries.
Schnellnhuber is a physicist specializing in chaos theory. He says he was terrified when he saw the numbers emerging from the study. Me too. Thing is, there's no way we can do this, even if everybody took the science seriously.
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